Chinese Invasion
The Chinese army’s incursion into India has been a topic of hot debate among international relations experts, with many contending that China has none-the-less violated Indian sovereignty. The incursion by Chinese troops into Indian-controlled territory began on 5th May 2020 at the Pangong Tso lake in the Ladakh region, and has since spread to other locations elsewhere in the Himalayas. The incursion is officially being seen as an ‘atmospheric test’ in the midst of a border dispute between the two countries. It has been speculated that the Chinese may have come in an attempt to gain control of the Eastern theatre of the ongoing India-China border disputes.
The situation has been exacerbated in recent weeks as both the Indian and Chinese sides are now heavily militarised, with both countries deploying troops at the border, as well as heavy military equipment. The presence of the Chinese army in Indian-controlled territory, as well as its push into Indian-controlled territory, has been seen by experts as a breach of India’s sovereignty. Experts have also pointed to the possible utilization of such a move as a power play, in the wake of the border dispute between India and China, which has so far been largely unresolved.
Indian political leaders have raised the alarm on the Chinese incursion, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi promising action on the matter. In turn, China has silently maintained that its moves are not provocative or in any way international in nature; instead, Beijing has framed it as an ‘atmospheric test’. Despite Chinese attempts to frame the development, India has moved to lodge a strong diplomatic protest in response to China’s actions.
While the full extent of the Chinese incursion and its impact is yet to be determined, the implications for India and its relationship with China are potentially far-reaching. Experts have warned of a growing rift between India and China, in the wake of the incursions. Such tensions would likely have implications for both countries in a variety of ways, from their domestic economic relationship to their international political standing.
Furthermore, the situation has also increased uncertainty surrounding India’s relationship with Pakistan, with whom it has also had a long-standing dispute. With the Chinese incursion, there is now concern that Pakistan, as China’s ally on a number of contentious issues, could be further emboldened to up its stance against India, potentially driving another wedge between the two countries. As such, the Chinese incursion into Indian-controlled territory could have wide-reaching consequences for the region and beyond.
China’s Aims
The aim of Chinese incursion into Indian-controlled territory remains unclear, though experts have theorised that it could be to gain control of the Eastern theatre in the ongoing India-China border dispute. This view has been further strengthened by the presence of a heavy Chinese military presence in the region, as well as the timing of the move which came in the midst of the map-building exercise.
Experts suggest that the Chinese are likely keen to prevent India from gaining control of the Eastern theatre, which could be used to project its military power in the region. Other theories suggest the incursion could also be aimed at placing pressure on India in various other disputes, stretching back to the 1962 war, as well as in maritime disputes in the region. As such, the Chinese are likely utilising the incursion as a diplomatic tool.
At the same time, China may also be attempting to prevent India from exploiting its military power in the region, which could potentially compromise China’s security and strategic interests in the region. This has been further compounded by India’s growing economic ties with countries in the Indian Ocean region, like Japan, the United States and Australia.
In essence, the Chinese incursion into Indian-controlled territory is viewed as part of its wider strategy in delaying and limiting India’s ability to exert its military and geopolitical power in the region. The aim is likely to contain India’s aspirations for regional power, which could then allow China to further extend its influence in the region.
Reaction of the Indian Government
India’s reaction to the intrusion differs depending on who you speak to; while the government has stated that it would use diplomatic means to resolve the conflict, certain members of the opposition have gone so far as to accuse the government of acting too slowly. India’s defence minister, however, has stated that the security forces are on high alert, suggesting that the Indian leadership is taking the matter seriously.
The Indian government has also made clear its stance on the issue by asserting that its territory must be defended, as well as its rights with regards to the border dispute. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to take ‘all necessary steps’ to protect India’s territorial integrity, suggesting that the government is unwilling to let China push it around.
In terms of political relations between India and China, New Delhi has viewed the situation as an opportunity to further increase India’s clout in the region. India has long sought to build strong ties with countries in the region, and the present situation is offering a chance to reveal India’s determination and capabilities to project its influence in the region. As such, India will be sure to make use of diplomatic channels as well as military preparedness to protect its interests.
Reviews & Responses of The People
The Chinese incursion into Indian-controlled territory has brought about a wide range of responses from the Indian public. There have been a myriad of opinions on the matter, ranging from calls for a will and aggressive response to the issue to those advocating for a more diplomatic solution. Still, the majority of India has been united in condemnation of the move, with many citizens and activists demanding action from the government.
The response from the international community to the Chinese incursion has been mixed. The United States, in particular, has been critical of China’s move, with the U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, noting that India’s right to defend its territorial integrity must be respected. Other countries like Australia, Japan and the European Union have also raised concerns over the incursion, with many countries, like France, offering their support to India.
Internally, the response has been more vocal and varied. Political leaders from different parties, intellectuals and activists alike have criticised the government for its handling of the incident, arguing that it was too slow to respond. At the same time, there have also been voices calling for restraint and compromise, so as to avoid further escalation of the situation.
Alternate Solutions to Conflict
Given the mounting tensions between both sides, the most realistic solution to the crisis would most likely be a diplomatic one. The Indian government needs to move quickly to find a solution, as the longer the border dispute drags on, the more potential there is for further escalations. Negotiations between India and China must be at the forefront, with both countries working together to find a satisfactory compromise.
In terms of the border dispute, India has advocated for a resumption of negotiations over the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The two countries have long discussed the delineation of the LAC, without coming to an agreement, and this latest development could potentially open the door for fresh discussions. At the same time, both sides could also consider altering their positions where necessary, in order to ensure the smooth functioning of the power dynamics in the region.
The two countries could also look towards building trust and fostering better relations in order to prevent future border incidents from occurring. This could involve more frequent exchanges between the two sides, including but not limited to military exchanges and dialogue, to ensure better operational coordination in case of any unforeseen crisis in the future.
Finally, the two countries could also look to build more collaborative ties in the region, from trade agreements to joint projects in areas such as infrastructure. Such collaborations could bring about more stability to the region, as well as boosting both India and China’s respective economies.
Economic Implications
The Chinese incursion into India has also raised fears over economic repercussions, as the situation could potentially affect both India and China’s economic ties. India’s relationship with China has been complicated in recent times, as the two countries butt heads over trade and tariff-related issues. As such, any further complications due to the border dispute could lead to an even further deterioration of the relationship.
In the wake of the border dispute, India has also begun to diversify its sources of imports, by seeking closer economic ties with countries like the United States, Japan and South Korea. This is seen as a way to reduce India’s reliance on Chinese imports, and as such, the situation has likely increased the urgency for India to found alternate sources of imports and reduce its reliance on China.
Furthermore, sanctions could be placed on China by India and other countries to further put pressure on Beijing. This could have serious implications for the Chinese economy, which could in turn fuel further discontent amongst citizens and affect China’s ability to conduct business with its neighbours. As such, the situation could create further economic chaos in the region, to the detriment of all economic stakeholders.
Conclusion and Effect
The Chinese incursion into Indian-controlled territory has been a major issue for both the countries and has further worsened the already strained relations between them. The full effect of the move remains to be seen, though the immediate concern is the possibility of further clashes between the two countries. In order to prevent the situation from escalating, both sides must look to de-escalate the crisis and seek a diplomatic solution.
At the same time, it must be remembered that both countries have something to gain from establishing better ties; hence, the need for both countries to come to the negotiating table and find mutually beneficial solutions. Such diplomatic efforts, combined with an increase in economic ties in the region, could ultimately contribute to creating a more secure and peaceful regional environment.
